FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Friday, 11 September 2026
1. FC Union Berlin 1–3 Schalke 04Match recap & how our call landed · Friday, 11 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was 1. FC Union Berlin or draw at 78%. Bawler had 1. FC Union Berlin at 55%, the draw at 24% and Schalke 04 at 22%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
1. FC Union Berlin win
55%
Draw
24%
Schalke 04 win
22%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.2
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 2.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
1. FC Union Berlin or draw
Pre-match: 78%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Union Berlin's xG advantage of 0.77 and 55% win probability anchor a 1. FC Union Berlin or draw forecast at 78%, with the hosts' superior shot quality expected to prevent a Schalke upset at home."