FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 16 August 2026
ADO Den Haag 1–4 FC GroningenMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was ADO Den Haag or draw at 71%. Bawler had ADO Den Haag at 41%, the draw at 30% and FC Groningen at 29%. The match finished 1–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
ADO Den Haag win
41%
Draw
30%
FC Groningen win
29%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 3.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 86% confidence because both teams project 2.88 combined expected goals with ADO's narrow 0.28 xG edge giving the hosts just enough attacking edge to push a low-scoring fixture past one goal."