FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 19 September 2026
ADO Den Haag 1–1 SC CambuurMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was ADO Den Haag or draw at 69%. Bawler had ADO Den Haag at 45%, the draw at 23% and SC Cambuur at 31%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
ADO Den Haag win
45%
Draw
23%
Result
SC Cambuur win
31%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.6
Total 3.5
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Medium confidence
ADO Den Haag or draw
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 84%, backed by ADO's 1.85 xG advantage and a 0.45 xG gap that suggests attacking intent from the hosts despite their mid-table positioning."