FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
AEK Athens 1–0 LASK LinzMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AEK Athens to win at 71%. Bawler had AEK Athens at 71%, the draw at 18% and LASK Linz at 12%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
AEK Athens win
71%
Result
Draw
18%
LASK Linz win
12%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.5 – 1.0
Total 3.5
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 2.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AEK Athens to win
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"AEK Athens' home win is the high-confidence call, backed by a dominant 1.55 xG advantage and 71% win probability that reflects their superior attacking threat against LASK's vulnerability in defence."