FT · England: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
AFC Bournemouth 4–0 Lincoln CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AFC Bournemouth to win at 76%. Bawler had AFC Bournemouth at 76%, the draw at 15% and Lincoln City at 9%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
AFC Bournemouth win
76%
Result
Draw
15%
Lincoln City win
9%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.6 – 0.8
Total 3.4
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 3.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AFC Bournemouth to win
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Bournemouth's home win forecast rests on a decisive 1.84 xG advantage, with strikers Tavernier and Evanilson accounting for 34% of the side's attacking threat against Lincoln's 0.80 expected goals."