Bawler / England: Premier League / Bournemouth
Team profile

Bournemouth Prediction

Per-game numbers from 38 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
13.8
a game
12.6 faced
On target
4.7
a game
4.3 faced
Goals
1.5 – 1.4
scored – conceded
a game, 38 matches
Next match
17%
Bournemouth win chance
at Manchester City · Sun 23 Aug 13:00

Bournemouth prediction: for Bournemouth's next match — Manchester City vs Bournemouth on Sunday 23 Aug, 13:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Manchester City are favoured (63%).

Bournemouth sit close to the Premier League average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.55 expected goals a game and conceding 1.62. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Next up is a trip to Manchester City, where the model has them as underdogs at 17%.

Bournemouth in numbers

38 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.5
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
Home 1.5Away 1.5
5.6
Corners · per game
give up 5.3
Home 6.0Away 5.2
13.8
Shots · per game
faced 12.6
Home 14.5Away 13.1
4.7
On target · per game
faced 4.3
Home 4.5Away 4.8
Last 6 games
24 May
1-1
@ Nott'm Forest
3-6
19 May
1-1
vs Manchester City
7-6
09 May
1-0
@ Fulham
2-11
03 May
3-0
vs Crystal Palace
7-1
22 Apr
2-2
vs Leeds
12-1
18 Apr
2-1
@ Newcastle
3-2

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Manchester City · Sunday 23 Aug, 13:00 UTC

Win
17%
Bournemouth
Draw
20%
Loss
63%
Opponent
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Bournemouth compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for
1.55
Above average
Goals against
1.62
Leakier than most
Record
2W 3D 0L
5 settled
Real goals
1.4 – 1.0
For / against, per match
Scored1.55
Conceded1.62

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.44 scored, 1.47 conceded).

What the data says
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.62 xG per match · +0.16 vs league average of 1.47.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 80% of the time on Bournemouth fixtures (4/5).

How Bawler has done on Bournemouth

80%
of high-confidence calls correct — 4 of 5, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)80%4/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Sun 24 May@ Nottingham Forest
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Tue 19 Mayvs Manchester City
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 09 May@ Fulham
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 18 Apr@ Newcastle
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 20 Marvs Manchester Utd
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

FPL assets at this club (2026/27 projections)

TruffertTruffertDEF · £5.5m · 4.9% owned3.1 pts
PetrovićPetrovićGKP · £4.5m · 3.6% owned2.9 pts
HillHillDEF · £5.5m · 1.1% owned2.8 pts
EvanilsonEvanilsonFWD · £6.0m · 2.1% owned2.7 pts
ScottScottMID · £6.0m · 1.6% owned2.7 pts
Next 5:MCI (A)EVE (H)NEW (A)BRE (H)LIV (H)

Full predicted points table → · Fixture difficulty matrix →

More on Bournemouth and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly