ENGLAND: EFL CupSaturday 08 Aug, 14:00 UTC
AFC Wimbledon vNewport County
Most likely scoreline
1–1
13% of the time · 2.50 goals expected
AFC Wimbledon 40%Draw 28%Newport County 32%
Strongest call
AFC Wimbledon or Draw
68%
How we get there
AFC WimbledonstepNewport County
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10
Most likely outcomes
AFC Wimbledon or Draw
68%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
AFC Wimbledon Win
40%
Draw
28%
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
AFC Wimbledon average 7.0 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches).
Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
More predictions for these teams
AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between AFC Wimbledon and Newport County — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: AFC Wimbledon 40% · draw 28% · Newport County 32%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
⚡ Full-time recap available
AFC Wimbledon 2–1 Newport County
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.