Football match predictions · updated Sunday, 16 August 2026
A football match prediction is an estimate of how a game is likely to end — the result, the goals, whether both teams score — written as a probability, not a promise. Bawler generates one for every fixture it covers using a statistical model, publishes it before kickoff, and settles it automatically from the final result. Nothing is deleted or edited, so you can check exactly how the model has done. The daily predictions are free; today's are further down this page.
How it works
Every morning Bawler's model looks at each upcoming fixture and estimates how many goals each side is likely to score. It weighs recent scoring and conceding form, how strong the opponent is, and home advantage. From those goal estimates it works out the probability of every outcome — who wins, how many goals, whether both teams score, and the most likely scoreline.
Predictions are finalised when the official team news lands, roughly 75 minutes before kickoff, then locked. At that point the day's predictions are written to an append-only log and their fingerprint is anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain — so it is mathematically impossible for anyone, including Bawler, to change a prediction after a match has been played.
There is no hand-picking and no favourite's bias: the model's numbers are the prediction. Those numbers are recalibrated against real results every week, so a 70% call keeps meaning 70%. If you want the deeper, technical write-up, the methodology page explains the maths in full, and /verify shows the tamper-evidence in action.
Live feed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
4 fixtures have a free high-confidence prediction today. The percentage is the model’s confidence.
Markets
“Who wins” is only one question a match answers. Bawler forecasts every common market from the same goal estimates, so you can pick the angle that fits the game. Each page lists today's ranked predictions for that market.
Accuracy
You don't have to take our word for it. Across 1,168 settled predictions spanning 55 competitions, the free high-confidence call has landed 74.1% of the time (865/1,168). That number is computed live from the public ledger — you can recompute it yourself from the same data.
No model is right every time, and a high-confidence call can still miss — that is what probability means. What makes the record trustworthy is that it is complete: no wrong call is ever quietly removed, and each day's predictions are timestamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before any match kicks off.
See the full ledger, filter by market, and check any individual prediction on the track record page.
Common questions
A football match prediction is an estimate of how a game is likely to end — the result, the number of goals, whether both teams score, and so on — expressed as a probability rather than a certainty. A prediction that a team has a 70% chance of winning still means it loses roughly three times in ten. Bawler publishes predictions as probabilities so you can see exactly how confident the model is, not just which side it favours.
Bawler runs a statistical model that estimates how many goals each team is likely to score, using recent scoring and conceding form, the strength of the opponent, and home advantage. From those goal estimates it works out the probability of every outcome — the result, over/under goals, both teams to score, the most likely scoreline, and more. There is no hand-picking: the model’s output is the prediction you see on the page.
Yes. Every per-match call on every fixture — high confidence, medium confidence and the outside shot — the model probabilities, and the full public track record are free at bawler.ai. A Pro tier (£7.99/month, with a 7-day free trial) adds alerts, full history and the deeper tools.
Only if you can check them. Most prediction sites quietly delete their losing calls, so their advertised strike rate is meaningless. Bawler logs every prediction before kickoff, settles it automatically from the final result, and never edits or removes it — and each day’s predictions are anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain so it is mathematically impossible to change them after the fact. You can recompute the hit rate yourself from the published record.
The major European leagues and cups while in season, plus the World Cup and other international windows.
Bawler is a statistical model, and its output is a probability rather than a forecast of what will certainly happen. Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes, and past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.