FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 12 September 2026
AJ Auxerre 1–0 NiceMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AJ Auxerre or draw at 71%. Bawler had AJ Auxerre at 44%, the draw at 27% and Nice at 29%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
AJ Auxerre win
44%
Result
Draw
27%
Nice win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AJ Auxerre or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Auxerre's 0.33 xG advantage and 44% win probability make AJ Auxerre or draw (draw or home win at 71%) the model's high-confidence call against a Nice side generating just 1.19 expected goals."