FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Thursday, 03 September 2026

Al Diriyah 0–2 Al QadsiahMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 03 September 2026

Al Diriyah
0–2
Al Qadsiah win
Al Qadsiah

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Qadsiah or draw at 74%. Bawler had Al Diriyah at 26%, the draw at 25% and Al Qadsiah at 49%. The match finished 0–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Diriyah win
26%
Draw
25%
Al Qadsiah win
49%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.2 – 1.7
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.2
From the match itself

The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Al Qadsiah or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 80% confidence as Al Qadsiah's 0.52 xG advantage and 49% win probability signal a high-tempo away performance that breaches Al Diriyah's defence."

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