FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Alanyaspor 2–2 GoztepeMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Goztepe or draw at 65%. Bawler had Alanyaspor at 35%, the draw at 28% and Goztepe at 37%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Alanyaspor win
35%
Draw
28%
Result
Goztepe win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.3
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 74% because both sides combine for 2.62 expected goals with a negligible 0.06 xG gap, suggesting an open contest unlikely to stay scoreless."