FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Albania 2–0 BelarusMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Albania
2–0
Albania win
Belarus

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Albania or draw at 75%. Bawler had Albania at 49%, the draw at 26% and Belarus at 25%. The match finished 2–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Albania win
49%
Result
Draw
26%
Belarus win
25%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.6
From the match itself

The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Belarus to win
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals carries 80% forecast confidence, driven by Albania's 0.64 expected-goal advantage and attacking intent at home against a Belarus side projected for just 1.18 xG."

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