Albania vs Belarus prediction — UEFA Nations League · Sat 26 Sept · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Sat 26 Sept · 19:45 UK
Albania 49Draw 26Belarus 25
Our call before kickoff
75%
Albania or draw
Landed
2.8
Goals expected
Full time
Final 2–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
72%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
56%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
54%

How it finished

Albania beat Belarus 2–0. Bawler's model had Albania in front at 49% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 2 were scored. Albania had 20 shots (3 on target) to Belarus' 8 (2), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 1.8 to 0.6.

AlbaniaFull-time statsBelarus
54%Possession46%
1.8Expected goals (xG)0.6
20Shots8
3Shots on target2
8Shots inside box5
3Big chances0
5Corners2
3Saves1
9Fouls23
0Offsides0
2Yellow cards4
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callAlbania or draw 75%Albania won (49% called)
Total goals2.82
Both teams to score56%No
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 78%Landed
Second pickOver 2.5 goals 54%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

AlbaniaBelarus
1.7
Goals+0.5
1.2
AlbaniaBelarus
0.5
Goals+0.1
0.4
AlbaniaBelarus
1.2
Goals+0.4
0.8

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Albania to score81%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Belarus to score69%
Under 3.5 goals68%

First half — what we expected

Albania
53%
to score before half-time
Belarus
40%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%

Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.5 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Albania 3 · Draws 1 · Belarus 1

Head to head

Nov 2020Albania 3–2 Belarus
Sept 2020Belarus 0–2 Albania
Nov 2013Belarus 0–0 Albania
Mar 2011Albania 1–0 Belarus
Oct 2010Belarus 2–0 Albania
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Albania vs Belarus?

Albania beat Belarus 2–0. Bawler's model had Albania in front at 49% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 2 were scored. Albania had 20 shots (3 on target) to Belarus' 8 (2), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 1.8 to 0.6.

What was the final score in Albania vs Belarus?

Albania 2–0 Belarus, played on 26 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Albania 49%, the draw 26% and Belarus 25%.

What were the stats in Albania vs Belarus?

Full-time: Possession 54%–46%, Expected goals (xG) 1.8–0.6, Shots 20–8, Shots on target 3–2, Shots inside box 8–5, Big chances 3–0, Corners 5–2, Saves 3–1, Fouls 9–23, Offsides 0–0, Yellow cards 2–4.

Did both teams score in Albania vs Belarus?

No. It finished 2–0, so Belarus failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Albania vs Belarus right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Albania or draw 75%, it finished Albania won (49% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 78%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Albania form →Belarus form →