FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Albania 2–1 San MarinoMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Albania
2–1
Albania win
San Marino

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Albania to win at 95%. Bawler had Albania at 95%, the draw at 5% and San Marino at 1%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Albania win
95%
Result
Draw
5%
San Marino win
1%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
3.6 – 0.2
Total 3.9
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 0.6
From the match itself

The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Albania to win
Pre-match: 95%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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