FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Amed SFK 3–2 BesiktasMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Amed SFK or draw at 70%. Bawler had Amed SFK at 45%, the draw at 24% and Besiktas at 30%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Amed SFK win
45%
Result
Draw
24%
Besiktas win
30%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.5
Total 3.3
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.7 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
Amed SFK or draw
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects as the high-confidence call at 81%, anchored by combined xG of 3.04 and a narrow 0.14-goal gap that keeps both sides competitive in attack."