FT · Belgium: Pro League · Thursday, 03 September 2026
Anderlecht 1–0 KV KortrijkMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 03 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Anderlecht or draw at 81%. Bawler had Anderlecht at 59%, the draw at 22% and KV Kortrijk at 19%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Anderlecht win
59%
Result
Draw
22%
KV Kortrijk win
19%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.1
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Anderlecht's 0.97 xG advantage underpins an Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 82%, with the hosts' superior shot quality expected to crack a Kortrijk defence facing a significant efficiency gap."