Europe: Champions League - QualificationTuesday 04 Aug, 16:00 UTC

Ararat-Armenia vNK Celje

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 3.04 goals expected
Ararat-Armenia 41%Draw 29%NK Celje 30%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
78%

Over 1.5 Goals commands 78% backing because both sides project nearly even attacking output (Ararat 1.64 xG, Celje 1.40), signaling a multi-goal affair despite the close matchup.

How we get there
Ararat-ArmeniastepNK Celje
1.45Base xG · rolling 26-match1.49
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.64Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.40
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
78%
Ararat-Armenia or draw
51%
Over 3.5 goals
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Ararat-Armenia average 3.3 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). NK Celje average 3.0 corners per game away from home this season (6 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
7
5
2
1
1
8
11
8
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
4
5
3
2
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Ararat-Armenia vs NK Celje — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Ararat-Armenia and NK Celje — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Ararat-Armenia 41% · draw 29% · NK Celje 30%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Ararat-Armenia 21 NK Celje
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.