FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Ararat-Armenia 1–4 Sparta PragueMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sparta Prague or draw at 76%. Bawler had Ararat-Armenia at 24%, the draw at 26% and Sparta Prague at 50%. The match finished 1–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Ararat-Armenia win
24%
Draw
26%
Sparta Prague win
50%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.7
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 2.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Ararat-Armenia to win
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Sparta Prague's 0.57 xG advantage and 50% win probability underpin the high-confidence forecast for Over 1.5 Goals at 76%, as the visitors' attacking edge should generate multiple chances despite Ararat-Armenia's home resilience."