How it finished
Sparta Prague beat Ararat-Armenia 4–1. Bawler's model had Sparta Prague in front at 50% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 5. Ararat-Armenia had 13 shots (2 on target) to Sparta Prague's 23 (8), with 42% of the ball against 58%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 2.5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 59%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Prague?
Sparta Prague beat Ararat-Armenia 4–1. Bawler's model had Sparta Prague in front at 50% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 5. Ararat-Armenia had 13 shots (2 on target) to Sparta Prague's 23 (8), with 42% of the ball against 58%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 2.5.
What was the final score in Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Prague?
Ararat-Armenia 1–4 Sparta Prague, played on 16 Sept 2026 in the Europe: Europa League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Ararat-Armenia 24%, the draw 26% and Sparta Prague 50%.
What were the stats in Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Prague?
Full-time: Possession 42%–58%, Expected goals (xG) 1.9–2.5, Shots 13–23, Shots on target 2–8, Shots inside box 10–14, Big chances 3–5, Corners 2–13, Saves 3–1, Fouls 16–19, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 3–0.
Did both teams score in Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Prague?
Yes — both Ararat-Armenia and Sparta Prague scored, finishing 1–4. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 54% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Prague right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Sparta Prague or draw 76%, it finished Sparta Prague won (50% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 54%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 76%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 52%, it finished Landed.