FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Monday, 28 September 2026

Armenia 2–3 MontenegroMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 28 September 2026

Armenia
2–3
Montenegro win
Montenegro

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Montenegro or draw at 69%. Bawler had Armenia at 31%, the draw at 25% and Montenegro at 45%. The match finished 2–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Armenia win
31%
Draw
25%
Montenegro win
45%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.7
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.4
From the match itself

The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals carries an 82% forecast given Armenia's 1.46 xG and Montenegro's 1.71 xG combined for a 3.17-goal projection that favors attacking intent from both sides."

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