FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Arsenal 2–1 ChelseaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Arsenal to win at 60%. Bawler had Arsenal at 60%, the draw at 23% and Chelsea at 17%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Arsenal win
60%
Result
Draw
23%
Chelsea win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 0.9
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Arsenal to win
Pre-match: 60%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Arsenal's title pursuit at home against a Chelsea side fighting for European survival creates a 1.08 xG advantage that supports a Home Win forecast at 62%."