FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham ForestMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Aston Villa or draw at 73%. Bawler had Aston Villa at 47%, the draw at 26% and Nottingham Forest at 27%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Aston Villa win
47%
Draw
26%
Nottingham Forest win
27%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Aston Villa or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Villa's 0.45 xG advantage and 47% win probability make Aston Villa or draw the high-confidence forecast, as Watkins and Rogers lead an attack that should edge Forest's dual-striker threat despite Gibbs-White and Wood's combined creativity."