FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Atlético Melilla 0–3 Atlético PinatarenseMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Atlético Melilla
0–3
Atlético Pinatarense win
Atlético Pinatarense

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Atlético Melilla or draw at 72%. Bawler had Atlético Melilla at 47%, the draw at 26% and Atlético Pinatarense at 28%. The match finished 0–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Atlético Melilla win
47%
Draw
26%
Atlético Pinatarense win
28%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Atlético Melilla or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals dominates the forecast at 78% confidence because Atlético Melilla's 1.66 xG significantly outpaces Pinatarense's 1.23, suggesting a combined attacking output that favors a multi-goal contest."

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