FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Atlético Pinatarense 8–0 Atlético MelillaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Atlético Pinatarense
8–0
Atlético Pinatarense win
Atlético Melilla

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Atlético Pinatarense or draw at 70%. Bawler had Atlético Pinatarense at 45%, the draw at 26% and Atlético Melilla at 30%. The match finished 8–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Atlético Pinatarense win
45%
Result
Draw
26%
Atlético Melilla win
30%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
8 – 0
Total 8 (+5.0 against our forecast)

The match produced 5.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 80%, anchored by Pinatarense's 1.65 xG advantage that should generate sufficient attacking threat in this Copa del Rey tie."

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