Our forecast for this match.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Bawler's model rates this match: Atlético Unión Güímar are favoured (44% win probability vs 30% for Sporting Hortaleza, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Atlético Unión Güímar 1-1 Sporting Hortaleza (12.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.9.
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Atlético Unión Güímar 44%, the draw 26% and Sporting Hortaleza 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 59% chance. That is based on Atlético Unión Güímar expecting 1.61 goals and Sporting Hortaleza 1.31.
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 56%.