FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Austria 3–1 IsraelMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Austria
3–1
Austria win
Israel

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Austria to win at 85%. Bawler had Austria at 85%, the draw at 11% and Israel at 5%. The match finished 3–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Austria win
85%
Result
Draw
11%
Israel win
5%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
3.2 – 0.7
Total 3.9
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 0.2
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.9.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Austria to win
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Austria's home advantage and Marcel Sabitzer's creative output underpin the 85% win forecast, with the hosts' 3.2 xG dwarfing Israel's 0.7."

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