Austria vs Israel prediction — UEFA Nations League · Thu 24 Sept · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Thu 24 Sept · 19:45 UK
Austria 85Draw 11Israel 5
Our call before kickoff
85%
Austria to win
Landed
3.9
Goals expected
Full time
Final 3–1
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
82%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
48%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
74%

How it finished

Austria beat Israel 3–1. Bawler's model had Austria in front at 85% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.9 goals and the match produced 4. Austria had 19 shots (9 on target) to Israel's 5 (1), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 2.7 to 0.2.

AustriaFull-time statsIsrael
52%Possession48%
2.7Expected goals (xG)0.2
19Shots5
9Shots on target1
15Shots inside box3
6Big chances1
4Corners2
0Saves6
15Fouls4
2Offsides1
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callAustria to win 85%Austria won (85% called)
Total goals3.94
Both teams to score48%Yes
Second pickOver 3.5 goals 54%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

AustriaIsrael
3.2
Goals+2.5
0.7
AustriaIsrael
0.8
Goals+0.5
0.3
AustriaIsrael
2.4
Goals+2.0
0.4

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first.

MarketProbability
Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals74%

First half — what we expected

Austria
76%
to score before half-time
Israel
26%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 82%

Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+2.5 / match
Head-to-head, last 4Austria 2 · Draws 0 · Israel 2

Head to head

Nov 2021Austria 4–2 Israel
Sept 2021Israel 5–2 Austria
Oct 2019Austria 3–1 Israel
Mar 2019Israel 4–2 Austria
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Austria vs Israel?

Austria beat Israel 3–1. Bawler's model had Austria in front at 85% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.9 goals and the match produced 4. Austria had 19 shots (9 on target) to Israel's 5 (1), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 2.7 to 0.2.

What was the final score in Austria vs Israel?

Austria 3–1 Israel, played on 24 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Austria 85%, the draw 11% and Israel 5%.

What were the stats in Austria vs Israel?

Full-time: Possession 52%–48%, Expected goals (xG) 2.7–0.2, Shots 19–5, Shots on target 9–1, Shots inside box 15–3, Big chances 6–1, Corners 4–2, Saves 0–6, Fouls 15–4, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 3–4, Red cards 0–1.

Did both teams score in Austria vs Israel?

Yes — both Austria and Israel scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 48% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Austria vs Israel right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Austria to win 85%, it finished Austria won (85% called); Total goals — we said 3.9, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 48%, it finished Yes; Second pick — we said Over 3.5 goals 54%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Austria form →Israel form →