FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Austria 3–1 KosovoMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Austria
3–1
Austria win
Kosovo

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Austria or draw at 80%. Bawler had Austria at 57%, the draw at 24% and Kosovo at 20%. The match finished 3–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Austria win
57%
Result
Draw
24%
Kosovo win
20%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.9 – 1.0
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 1.4
From the match itself

The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Austria or draw
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Austria's home advantage and Marcel Sabitzer's creative threat combine with a dominant 2.04 xG to make a Home Win the model's 61% forecast."

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