FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Friday, 11 September 2026
AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Willem IIMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 11 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was AZ Alkmaar to win at 77%. Bawler had AZ Alkmaar at 77%, the draw at 14% and Willem II at 9%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
AZ Alkmaar win
77%
Draw
14%
Result
Willem II win
9%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.8 – 0.9
Total 3.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AZ Alkmaar to win
Pre-match: 77%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"AZ Alkmaar's home win is the model's high-confidence call at 77%, built on a dominant 1.95 xG advantage that Troy Parrott and company should convert into clear superiority over Willem II."