FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Azerbaijan 0–0 LiechtensteinMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Azerbaijan to win at 78%. Bawler had Azerbaijan at 78%, the draw at 16% and Liechtenstein at 6%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Azerbaijan win
78%
Draw
16%
Result
Liechtenstein win
6%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.4 – 0.6
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 0.1
From the match itself

The match produced 3.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Azerbaijan to win
Pre-match: 78%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Azerbaijan's home win is the model's 83% call, anchored on a 2.32 expected-goals advantage that projects dominant attacking output against limited visiting threat."

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