FT · Spain: La Liga · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Barcelona 7–2 Racing SantanderMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Barcelona to win at 73%. Bawler had Barcelona at 73%, the draw at 17% and Racing Santander at 10%. The match finished 7–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Barcelona win
73%
Result
Draw
17%
Racing Santander win
10%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.6 – 0.9
Total 3.4
Actual
7 – 2
Total 9 (+5.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
6.7 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 5.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Barcelona to win
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Barcelona's home win is the model's high-confidence call at 73%, backed by a dominant 1.69 xG advantage and Lewandowski's 24% share of attacking output."