FT · Europe: Champions League · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Bayern Munich 5–0 Bodo/GlimtMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bayern Munich to win at 80%. Bawler had Bayern Munich at 80%, the draw at 12% and Bodo/Glimt at 8%. The match finished 5–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bayern Munich win
80%
Result
Draw
12%
Bodo/Glimt win
8%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
3.5 – 1.1
Total 4.6
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 4.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Bayern Munich to win
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Bayern Munich's home win prediction rests on a decisive 2.32 xG advantage, translating to an 80% forecast that the hosts' superior attacking threat will prevail."