FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Friday, 11 September 2026
Besiktas 3–0 Erzurum BBMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 11 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Besiktas to win at 65%. Bawler had Besiktas at 65%, the draw at 20% and Erzurum BB at 15%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Besiktas win
65%
Result
Draw
20%
Erzurum BB win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.0
Total 3.2
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.2 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 3.2.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Besiktas to win
Pre-match: 65%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 39%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Besiktas' home win forecast rests on a commanding 1.22 expected-goals advantage, translating to a 65% probability of three points against a visitor managing just 0.97 xG."