FT · England: Championship · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Birmingham City 2–2 Wolverhampton WanderersMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw at 68%. Bawler had Birmingham City at 32%, the draw at 29% and Wolverhampton Wanderers at 39%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Birmingham City win
32%
Draw
29%
Result
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
39%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.3
Total 2.4
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw
Pre-match: 68%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 23%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Wolverhampton's xG advantage of 1.30 to 1.14 gives them the edge despite Birmingham's home turf, making the Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw forecast (68% confidence) the model's call in this evenly-matched fixture."