FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Blackburn Rovers 3–1 MillwallMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Millwall or draw at 66%. Bawler had Blackburn Rovers at 34%, the draw at 28% and Millwall at 38%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Blackburn Rovers win
34%
Result
Draw
28%
Millwall win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.3
Total 2.6
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 73% because both sides generate similar attacking threat—Blackburn 1.26 xG and Millwall 1.34 xG—leaving room for multiple goals across an evenly matched fixture."