FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Bolton Wanderers 0–1 Lincoln CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Bolton Wanderers or draw at 64%. Bawler had Bolton Wanderers at 36%, the draw at 27% and Lincoln City at 36%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bolton Wanderers win
36%
Draw
27%
Lincoln City win
36%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Lincoln City's title charge at 85 points with four games remaining creates defensive urgency against Bolton's attacking threat, yet the xG gap of just 0.08 suggests an open contest where Over 1.5 Goals projects at 77%."