FT · England: Championship · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Bolton Wanderers 2–3 West Ham UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was West Ham United to win at 61%. Bawler had Bolton Wanderers at 16%, the draw at 22% and West Ham United at 61%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bolton Wanderers win
16%
Draw
22%
West Ham United win
61%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 2.0
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
West Ham United to win
Pre-match: 61%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"West Ham's attacking threat—Castellanos generating over a quarter of team chances—outmatches Bolton's 0.96 expected goals, driving the away win forecast to 61% probability."