FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Borussia Dortmund 3–0 SC Paderborn 07Match recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Borussia Dortmund to win at 72%. Bawler had Borussia Dortmund at 72%, the draw at 17% and SC Paderborn 07 at 11%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Borussia Dortmund win
72%
Result
Draw
17%
SC Paderborn 07 win
11%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.5 – 0.9
Total 3.4
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Borussia Dortmund to win
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Borussia Dortmund's home win is the model's 72% call, built on a 1.61 expected-goals advantage and Guirassy's 30% share of attacking threat against a side managing just 0.89 xG."