FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–4 SV ElversbergMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw at 77%. Bawler had Borussia Mönchengladbach at 53%, the draw at 24% and SV Elversberg at 23%. The match finished 3–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Borussia Mönchengladbach win
53%
Draw
24%
SV Elversberg win
23%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 3.0
Actual
3 – 4
Total 7 (+4.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 2.4
From the match itself
The match produced 4.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Borussia Mönchengladbach to win
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Borussia Mönchengladbach's 0.68 xG advantage and Kleindienst's creative load suggest they'll dominate possession at home, but Elversberg's compact defending keeps this low-scoring until the second half, making Over 1.5 Goals the 79% high-confidence call."