World: World CupWednesday 24 Jun, 19:00 UTC

Bosnia-Herzegovina vQatar

Most likely scoreline
10
11% of the time · 2.79 goals expected
Bosnia-Herzegovina 55%Draw 28%Qatar 17%
Strongest call
Over 2.5 goals
75%

Over 2.5 Goals sits at 74% because Bosnia-Herzegovina's 1.82 xG—boosted by scorer Džeko's 22% of team creation—heavily outweighs Qatar's anaemic 0.96 output.

How we get there
Bosnia-HerzegovinastepQatar
1.83Base xG · rolling 26-match0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.83Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.96
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
75%
Under 2.5 goals
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Qatar average 3.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
6
3
1
1
11
11
5
2
2
10
10
5
2
3
6
6
3
1
4
3
3
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Almoez Ali
Qatar · Al-Duhail
42%
To assist
Akram Afif
Qatar · Al-Sadd
38%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Qatar — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Bosnia-Herzegovina and Qatar — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Bosnia-Herzegovina 55% · draw 28% · Qatar 17%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Bosnia-Herzegovina 31 Qatar
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.