FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Braga 2–0 Austria ViennaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Braga to win at 65%. Bawler had Braga at 65%, the draw at 21% and Austria Vienna at 14%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Braga win
65%
Result
Draw
21%
Austria Vienna win
14%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 0.9
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.1 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Braga or draw
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.