FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Brighton & Hove Albion 1–1 Leeds UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Brighton & Hove Albion or draw at 75%. Bawler had Brighton & Hove Albion at 50%, the draw at 25% and Leeds United at 25%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Brighton & Hove Albion win
50%
Draw
25%
Result
Leeds United win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 2.7
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Brighton & Hove Albion or draw
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Brighton's attacking edge—1.75 expected goals to Leeds' 1.19—makes Over 1.5 Goals the model's 79% call, with Welbeck's 22% of team xG posing the primary threat against a visiting side six points adrift."