FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Bulgaria 0–0 EstoniaMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Bulgaria or draw at 67%. Bawler had Bulgaria at 43%, the draw at 24% and Estonia at 33%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Bulgaria win
43%
Draw
24%
Result
Estonia win
33%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.8 – 1.6
Total 3.4
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 0.3
From the match itself

The match produced 3.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 86%, backed by Bulgaria's 0.43 expected-goal advantage and a combined xG total of 3.49 pointing to an attacking contest."

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