How it finished
Bulgaria and Estonia drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Bulgaria at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 24%. It forecast 3.4 goals; nobody scored. Bulgaria had 17 shots (2 on target) to Estonia's 6 (2), with 55% of the ball against 45%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 0.3.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 78%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Bulgaria vs Estonia?
Bulgaria and Estonia drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Bulgaria at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 24%. It forecast 3.4 goals; nobody scored. Bulgaria had 17 shots (2 on target) to Estonia's 6 (2), with 55% of the ball against 45%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 0.3.
What was the final score in Bulgaria vs Estonia?
Bulgaria 0–0 Estonia, played on 29 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Bulgaria 43%, the draw 24% and Estonia 33%.
What were the stats in Bulgaria vs Estonia?
Full-time: Possession 55%–45%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–0.3, Shots 17–6, Shots on target 2–2, Shots inside box 7–1, Big chances 0–1, Corners 6–6, Saves 1–2, Fouls 9–26, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 3–2.
Did both teams score in Bulgaria vs Estonia?
No. It finished 0–0, so Bulgaria failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 66% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Bulgaria vs Estonia right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Bulgaria or draw 67%, it finished Draw (24% called); Total goals — we said 3.4, it finished 0; Both teams to score — we said 66%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 85%, it finished Missed.