FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Bulgaria 1–2 LuxembourgMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Bulgaria
1–2
Luxembourg win
Luxembourg

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Bulgaria or draw at 66%. Bawler had Bulgaria at 40%, the draw at 26% and Luxembourg at 34%. The match finished 1–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Bulgaria win
40%
Draw
26%
Luxembourg win
34%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.3
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 81%, driven by Bulgaria's 1.62 xG and Luxembourg's 1.43 xG creating a combined 3.05 expected-goal total that projects a multi-goal result."

More from Bawler