How it finished
Luxembourg beat Bulgaria 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Bulgaria at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Luxembourg 34%. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Bulgaria had 10 shots (7 on target) to Luxembourg's 15 (7), with 50% of the ball against 50%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 1.3.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
Luxembourg beat Bulgaria 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Bulgaria at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Luxembourg 34%. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Bulgaria had 10 shots (7 on target) to Luxembourg's 15 (7), with 50% of the ball against 50%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 1.3.
What was the final score in Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
Bulgaria 1–2 Luxembourg, played on 26 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Bulgaria 40%, the draw 26% and Luxembourg 34%.
What were the stats in Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
Full-time: Possession 50%–50%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–1.3, Shots 10–15, Shots on target 7–7, Shots inside box 6–11, Big chances 3–3, Corners 5–4, Saves 5–6, Fouls 10–17, Offsides 3–2, Yellow cards 2–2.
Did both teams score in Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
Yes — both Bulgaria and Luxembourg scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 59% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Bulgaria vs Luxembourg right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Bulgaria or draw 66%, it finished Luxembourg won (34% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 59%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Landed.