FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Cambridge United 0–1 MillwallMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Millwall or draw at 65%. Bawler had Cambridge United at 35%, the draw at 27% and Millwall at 38%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Cambridge United win
35%
Draw
27%
Millwall win
38%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.