FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Canada 1–0 ChileMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Canada
1–0
Canada win
Chile

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Canada or draw at 80%. Bawler had Canada at 55%, the draw at 25% and Chile at 20%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Canada win
55%
Result
Draw
25%
Chile win
20%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.6 – 1.1
From the match itself

The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Canada or draw
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Canada's 0.73 expected-goals advantage and Davies's creative role make Canada or draw (Canada win or draw) the model's 79% call at home."

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