> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Thursday 18 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Canada vs Qatar
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% because Canada's 1.49 xG and Qatar's 1.15 xG combine for a low-scoring script where both teams' creator and striker talent—Davies and David for the hosts, Afif and Ali for the visitors—will likely each find the net once.
Win probability
41.8% home31.7% draw26.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
CanadastepQatar
1.36Base xG · rolling 26-match1.21
× 1.10Home advantage · Host nation× 0.95
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.49Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.15
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Canada 6–0 Qatar
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+