FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Cardiff City 1–2 Norwich CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Norwich City or draw at 66%. Bawler had Cardiff City at 34%, the draw at 26% and Norwich City at 40%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Cardiff City win
34%
Draw
26%
Norwich City win
40%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.5
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.